What can we expect with a Baseball season like no other about to get underway? I honestly don’t have the slightest clue. Luckily for you, I am not going to have that stop me from making my season predictions. Although there are any number of events or scenarios that could throw MLB’s plans for the season out the window. For the purpose of this, I am going to hope and assume everything goes as planned.
The baseball season is now a sprint and not a marathon. During any other year, a week or two lull in the middle of the summer is excusable if not expected at some point for even the best teams. This year a bad two week span could be enough to doom even the best teams. Looking at last year, the Washington Nationals were playing .500 baseball through half the season, and were 6 games below .500 at the 60 game mark last season before going on to win the Worlds Series. The Rangers who finished below .500 would have been a Wild Card team through 60 games. So expect the unexpected.
So with the added importance of each game, I believe the following keys are going to be paramount for success...
1. Health - This is an obvious one, but that doesn’t mean it’s less important. People are going to jump to the worry about COVID-19 and losing players to games because players test positive. That is going to be a big concern and will be interesting how teams adjust when players inevitably test positive. I am going to focus more on the more traditional issue with health. Though there won’t be as much wear and tear on the body only playing 60 games, you are still packing a lot of games into a short time period. The typical bumps, bruises, strains and sprains are still going to happen. What happens when a team’s best player goes on the DL for a simple ankle sprain and misses two weeks? Or someone gets hit by a pitch (I’m looking at you Houston) and bruises a rib and needs to miss time? Missing a star player for 15 games in a 162 game season is something that teams overcome all the time. What happens when it’s only a 60 game season and these players are now missing a quarter of the season? A few key injuries could drastically change the outlook for a number of teams
Depth - So when these players do go to the DL or even miss a few games how well are your players stepping in? Does your team have a solid 6th starter? Do you have a super utility player that can play all over the diamond and play at a high level? Do you have a deep enough bullpen to have a bullpen day to cover for a missing start? Do some of your young players step up in a big spot? With so many teams carrying their top prospects this season with no minor league baseball, do one of these players we thought were a year or two away make a huge splash ready now?
Bullpen - The way bullpens are used have already started to evolve over the past few years. Teams have started to shy away from only using their closer in the 9th inning. Whether it's bringing them in for a couple extra out or just bringing them in early to face the heart of the lineup in the 8th. Teams have used openers and bullpen games to cover up some of the flaws of the pitching staff with some success. I think this year we will see even more of that as the number of pitchers available has increased and teams try to get creative to keep all their pitchers fresh and healthy. Having a Manager who is able to balance their bullpen is going to be more important than ever.
Universal DH - Obviously this only affects the National League. While every team will have a boost to their offense with this change. This has solved issues for some teams that had issues with balancing playing time and or defensive shortcomings. How will these teams adjust, not only their lineup but coaching philosophy. Could this have teams move away further from small ball?
Let's get to some predictions:
Bold Predictions:
The Ravens will win more times in 16 games than the Orioles will in 60 games
Vlad Guerrero Jr wins the batting title
Tyler Glasnow finishes top 5 in CY Young Voting
Gerrit Cole has an ERA above 4.00
Jose Berrios leads the AL in Wins with 7
Shane Bieber has an ERA under 3.00
The White Sox win more games than the Cubs
Joey Gallo leads the AL in HRs
The Athletics have the best team ERA
The Astros lead all of baseball in runs scored
Anthony Rendon leads the Angels in HRs, RBIs, and Batting Average
Bryce Harper leads the NL in HRs
The Nationals finish at .500
The Reds lead the NL in HRs
The Cubs finally move on from Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo after the season
The Dodgers win over 40 games
Nolan Arenado is also traded after the season
The Padres miss out on the playoffs on the last day of the season
No one has more than 12 Saves
We will actually finish the season
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